Bashir's Kenyan excursion

Posted By David Bosco Friday, August 27, 2010 - 10:22 AM Share

As noted in the morning brief, Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir is reported to be in Kenya today for the celebration of that country's new constitution in defiance of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant. This is the most audacious of his international travels to date. Kenya is not only a member of the ICC but also the subject of a ongoing investigation into the 2007 post-election violence. (The Kenyan authorities could certainly win some points with the court if they were to somehow snag Bashir on his way home.)

If Bashir pulls this off, it will demonstrate something important: The major powers are not making compliance with ICC rules a central issue in their bilateral relations with countries like Kenya. There can be little doubt that the United States, Brazil, and major European governments knew about Bashir's trip in advance. Had they wanted to expend significant diplomatic capital, they likely could have stopped it. But here Bashir is on to something important: he knows that governments supportive of the ICC probably won't have the patience and focus to maintain that effort.

Update: Astute commenter Xavier Rauscher points out that it's not just the ICC's credibility at stake but that of the Security Council, which referred Sudan to the court in the first place.

 

XRAUSCHER

11:23 AM ET

August 27, 2010

The Security Council Must React

I think you're exactly right on this count: apparently, the "pro-ICC" powers are not taking the issue of compliance with the Rome Statute seriously.

More importantly, as the case of Sudan was referred to the ICC by the UN Security Council, it would seem that that body is not taking its own referral seriously. It must react, and react with concrete measures.

If this affront to the Court and to the SC goes unanswered, it could be a major blow for the ICC. Chad had set a dangerous precedent. Many hoped that it would stay an isolated event. Apparently, it wasn't.

So much for Pacta Sunt Servanda. For that matter, so much for many things.

 

MONYESHA NYENYE

9:58 PM ET

August 28, 2010

Let´s be careful

Look at this issue with a wide angle lens and not a simplified who could, can, should have or whatever but rather what is the real practical and calculated end result that the world hopes to achieve. Who knows these people better and how can we get the same results attained and yet maintain a relative order. Simply think Feb 2011 and consult with Kenya.
Making it about ICC credibility and security council stand is taking the wrong slant in a matter most likely to provide the same bodies (ICC and SC) with meaningful road plan. Just think a little outside this box.

 

GRANT

12:40 PM ET

August 27, 2010

Let's face it, he is not

Let's face it, he is not going to be arrested and the ICC is not going to be able to do anything about it. To be sure there will probably be some smaller fish snared by the ICC in the future but this seems to prove that organization is not going to be able to go after strong leaders like Bashir. Few would be happier than myself to be proven wrong but I'd say we have enough evidence to write off the ICC as a major organization.

 

DAVID BOSCO

1:25 PM ET

August 27, 2010

Too pessimistic

I think this is too gloomy a view. The fact that Bashir has to carefully calculate his chances during every trip is itself a disincentive to national leaders who might otherwise be inclined to thuggery.

 

ABLITZ

6:03 PM ET

August 27, 2010

Here's the problem, no one

Here's the problem, no one wants to arrest him now. And believe it or not there are good reasons for this. If Bashir's arrested ahead of the South's referendum who knows what will happen.

Honestly, I wonder if anyone has played out this scenario. What happens if Bashir goes away? I'm guessing it's going to be a mess but I hope someone somewhere whether in academia or within the U.S. government is looking at the possibility because it could happen.

As much as we don't want to deal with him, we need Bashir right now. The CPA has effectively stopped the fighting between North and South and taking out the leader during bilateral talks would probably send the whole nation into a tailspin. That's why the ICC's recent announcement of additional charges for genocide (which probably won't hold up anyway) are poorly timed.
Punish the man when it makes sense, let's not re-start a Civil War and create more war criminals in order punish another one
to punish a war criminal,

 

MATHAGU

10:12 PM ET

August 28, 2010

It's a matter of timing,

It's a matter of timing, South Sudan is preparing for a referendum on January 9th on whether to secede from the North. Under CPA this referendum is to be organized by the North and arresting Bashir in 'mid-term' of his presidency would jeopardize this referendum. It is expected that the South will vote to secede; let's give them that chance.

 

THINK2ICE

2:16 PM ET

August 28, 2010

This is a disgrace for Kenya!

This is a disgrace for Kenya!

 

BOREDWELL

8:27 PM ET

August 29, 2010

bash erring

China buys 60 percent of Sudan's oil production. China produces its powdered milk products very cheaply in Kenya. China's ambassador to Kenya praised the new constitution. He agreed with Kibaki that Bashir represents a neighboring country that has long enjoyed (and will continue to enjoy) friendly relations and trade partnerships. With one another. And with CHINA. Kenya has no need for scoring brownie points with ICC (the constitution mulled over punishing homosexuality.with the death sentence) by "snagging Bashir on his way home."

China and Sudan have no interest in human rights. China and Kenya will protect Bashir. because traditionally and historically only those who rule are entitled to human rights. Not the people. The ICC and the SC rulings will be considered null and void in these countries.

 

NICHOLAS WIBBERLEY

7:42 AM ET

August 30, 2010

A No No

Snagging Heads of State as the go about their business? Not a good precedent to set.

 

ALBATROSS117

12:19 PM ET

August 30, 2010

Precendent

Snagging heads of state as they go about there business is not a good precedent to set, but bashir is a fugitive criminal. International law cannot be formed out of precedent all the time...it is always a new and evolving field of law and policy that has few precedents set for it to follow.

Someone at some point in time had to set the first precedents for law...but they had no precedents to work off of...they did what they thought was right and just regardless of popular support for it

 

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