As noted in the morning brief, Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir is reported to be in Kenya today for the celebration of that country's new constitution in defiance of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant. This is the most audacious of his international travels to date. Kenya is not only a member of the ICC but also the subject of a ongoing investigation into the 2007 post-election violence. (The Kenyan authorities could certainly win some points with the court if they were to somehow snag Bashir on his way home.)
If Bashir pulls this off, it will demonstrate something important: The major powers are not making compliance with ICC rules a central issue in their bilateral relations with countries like Kenya. There can be little doubt that the United States, Brazil, and major European governments knew about Bashir's trip in advance. Had they wanted to expend significant diplomatic capital, they likely could have stopped it. But here Bashir is on to something important: he knows that governments supportive of the ICC probably won't have the patience and focus to maintain that effort.
Update: Astute commenter Xavier Rauscher points out that it's not just the ICC's credibility at stake but that of the Security Council, which referred Sudan to the court in the first place.
David Bosco reports on the new world order for The Multilateralist.