Posted By David Bosco Share

President Obama sent hearts soaring in India today when he endorsed, before a special session of India's parliament, the country's bid for permanent membership on the U.N. Security Council.

Indeed, the just and sustainable international order that America seeks includes a United Nations that is efficient, effective, credible and legitimate. That is why I can say today, in the years ahead, I look forward to a reformed U.N. Security Council that includes India as a permanent member.

"It was a powerful endorsement. It is very welcome. Very eloquently put," said the head of India's BJP party. The Indian government had clearly been hoping that Obama would take the step, and a number of prominent voices pushed the White House in that direction. John McCain called for it on the eve of Obama's visit. For its part, Pakistan opposed the move, warning that a permanent seat for India would complicate regional security.

The endorsement was a notable move for an administration that has been all but mute on the question of Security Council reform. Given the efforts Washington has expended on pushing the G-20 and revamping governance at the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, administration officials have been surprisingly quiet on Council reform, confining themselves to boilerplate about the need for  an effective and legitimate Council. There's been no sign that Washington is actively pushing negotiations in New York. And in the wake of the unwelcome Iran diplomacy by Brazil and Turkey last year, the administration may be cooler to the idea of new permanent Council members than it had been initially. The Obama team will be carefully watching the Council's performance in 2011, when it will include many leading candidates as nonpermanent members, including India, Germany, Brazil, and South Africa. 

In discussing the India announcement, administration officials acknowledged the obvious: permanent membership for India (or anyone else) remains a long way off. "This is bound to be a very complicated and difficult process, given the range of issues that have to be discussed and it's bound to take a significant amount of time," said undersecretary of State William Burns. In the 1990s, the United States endorsed the candidacies of Germany and Japan, a move that did little to propel their candidacies. Before Obama's departure for India, Strobe Talbot warned correctly that "even if assurances are made that a permanent seat were available for India, it is a bit like a check that runs some risk of bouncing, or of not being cashable for some time to come."

Even if it were genuinely inclined to do so, the United States does not alone have the power to cash India's Council check. Security Council reform requires a U.N. Charter amendment, which in turn requires two-thirds backing by the U.N. General Assembly (as well as the support of all current permanent members). The obstacle for India, and all other leading candidates for permanent seats, is that the Assembly is dominated by small and mid-size countries skeptical of adding new permanent seats, at least without a major increase in rotating seats. Accordingly, Council reform has been stuck for almost two decades, with the Assembly unable to reach consensus on a plan. The four leading candidates -- India, Germany, Japan, and Brazil -- all have influential opponents (Pakistan, Italy, China, and Argentina, respectively) who are keen to muck up the works.

For all the goodwill the announcement has won Obama in India, it won't change that underlying reality. And, at the moment, Washington is not interested in expending the diplomatic capital that would be required to help turn India's Council dream into a reality.

Update: A reader writes, "Getting a permanent seat at the UNSC is a long term goal for India. We are pragmatic. We know we are not going to get it tomorrow. But, we have to start somewhere. An endorsement, even an empty one, from the world's most powerful man is welcome." 

 

SEMPRINI

12:32 PM ET

November 8, 2010

Atleast It's a start....

Getting a permanent seat at the UNSC is a long term goal for India. We are pragmatic. We know we are not going to get it tomorrow. But, we have to start somewhere. An endorsement, even an empty one, from the world's most powerful man is welcome.

 

MEGAKIDS

9:49 PM ET

November 8, 2010

Ya right, Pragmatist!

I heard Obama also endorsed sending Indians an aircraft carrier combat fleet (because Americans can no longer afford the maintenance), as well as bringing your astronauts to the Moon and Mars in 100 years! Cheers!

 

NEWFIEGIRLTOO

2:02 AM ET

November 11, 2010

Semprini

I hate to tell you but Obama word means nothing. He has shown that time and time again. I believe India should have a seat. Obama doesn't mean what he says. If he does something that look good on the surface it usually is very bad. The only people he seems to care about are America's enemy. He keeps saying America is not a Christian nation but that is not true. America was started with people trying to practice their religion. America is not just one religion it is many. Obama is not to be trusted in America or anyone else.

 

MARTY MARTEL

8:38 PM ET

November 8, 2010

UNSC reform is just a lot of talk

If security council reform has to be approved by UN general assembly, then chances of that happening are remote to none.

Furthermore, China will not allow India or Japan to become UNSC member with veto power, no matter what.

So UN Security Council reform is destined to remain just a lot of talk with no end result.

 

MEGAKIDS

9:44 PM ET

November 8, 2010

You think Russia, Uk and France would say YES?

So why not give an "empty promise" if you know eventually it won't be delivered. It's American's specialty, in foreign policy, and domestic issues. Good work, President!

 

DAVID BOSCO

10:32 PM ET

November 8, 2010

It's worth remembering that

It's worth remembering that in the early 1990s, the Clinton administration endorsed the German and Japanese candidacies for permanent membership. Almost twenty years later, it's not clear that we're any closer.

 

ANOTHER MULTILATERALIST

8:54 PM ET

November 8, 2010

Real Significance

What it really means, and this does have value, is that the United States won't oppose a Security Council Seat for India. This is important. You think Pakistan can scuttle India's chances at a seat? Watch what would happen were the US to throw it's weight against India. Now that its got the US's assent India only has 4 other great powers it needs to convince, and unlike Japan it's lucky enough that none of them happen to be it's primary opponent in the matter.

 

ZORRO

4:25 AM ET

November 9, 2010

Veto Powers

How often does the UNSC come up with any meaningful resolutions now with five members having veto power? Imagine what it would be like with nine members having veto power...
My guess is that it will take a major global disaster to reform the UNSC, like WW III or runaway global warming.

 

DAVID BOSCO

11:16 AM ET

November 9, 2010

It's not clear that any new

It's not clear that any new permanent members would be granted the veto power. My guess is that they would not.

 

YKNOT

4:43 AM ET

November 9, 2010

UNSC quid pro quo

i think it was very clear that the support for India's bid for a permanent member of UNSC is on the basis of India supporting US stance on Iran and countries like Mayanmar...India - Iran relationship goes back many years and India cannot toe US's line and impose sanctions, etc on Iran. Obama's promise maynot be empty but definitely is conditional on India taking some tuff decisions that its polity may not allow.

 

SAM FROM CALIFORNIA

11:09 AM ET

November 9, 2010

What...

..is the official chinese position on a UNPSC seat for India? Because of their common Cold War history, I imagine Russia would support India, and I cant see any reason for England or France to object. Only China has a veto and a strategic competition w India.

 

050206

10:15 PM ET

November 9, 2010

why so empty?

I understand your use of the term "empty" promise here, but is it really the right word? I'm sure the Obama team has cooked up some great linkage to go with this diplomatic move--perhaps on Iran, Burma, general security in the region, etc. Sure, the chances of India getting into the UNSC are slim, but there's more to this gesture than meets the eye.

 

KMC2K9

3:50 PM ET

November 14, 2010

Even it was an empty promise

Even it was an empty promise so what? Obama's visit has done a lot of good in India and the respect he has gained and America has gained will help forge better releations and the only real problem to getting into the UN would be Pakistan and there best Friend China who is a permenant member so if India is becoming a super power then dont they deserve this?

India is know opening more and more industrys and is welcoming international brands such as Walmart (American) to there shores and bringing there Asda brand there and offering asda jobs to the general public of India.

I visited India recently and saw this dramtic change hopefully there is more to come and realy be seen on the world scene.

 

RICHARDNM

7:38 AM ET

November 19, 2010

How about giving the UK seat to India?

I mean, if the EU wants to pretend it actually has a common foreign policy, it can agree to reduce itself from two permanent seats to one and pass the other to the most populous former colony of Europe.

 

David Bosco reports on the new world order for The Multilateralist.

Read More