This BBC story quotes a Gaddafi advisor suggesting that the prospect of being tried by the International Criminal Court is a significant obstacle to stepping aside:
The worse Col Gaddafi's predicament, the more determined he may be not to give in.
"What options does he have?" said a senior Gaddafi adviser I met in Tripoli earlier this month.
"Even if he did resign, then he gets arrested and taken to the Hague."
The adviser was referring to the impending decision by the
International Criminal Court on whether to seek Col Gaddafi's arrest on
war crimes charges.
Attempts to find a negotiated solution to the conflict are
already underway, including by a French businessman with wide contacts
in Libya.
But any deal for Col Gaddafi to step aside would be even
harder to achieve if these arrest warrants - also for his son, Saif, and
his intelligence chief Abdullah Senussi - are approved.
As interesting, the article quotes a senior American official acknowledging that ICC involvement complicates a political exit. There is a mechanism for dealing with this kind of dilemma: Article 16 of the ICC's Rome Statute allows the Security Council to defer an investigation for up to 12 months, with the possibility of renewal. In the past, the United States, in particular, has balked at suggestions that Article 16 be used in the context of investigations in Sudan, Kenya, and Uganda. Doing so in this case would effectively be an acknowledgement that referring the case was a mistake in the first place. I'd be very surprised if Britain, France or the United States could stomach such a reversal. But plenty about the Libya situation has been surprising.
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