George Will thinks NATO's dying. That's what he thought in 1999 too.

Posted By David Bosco Thursday, August 18, 2011 - 4:43 PM Share

George Will has a gloomy column on NATO in today's Washington Post that mostly mirrors former Defense Secretary Robert Gates' parting shot: Europeans don't spend enough on their militaries for the alliance to be worth America's while:

Since the Cold War’s end, the combined gross domestic product of NATO’s European members has grown 55 percent, yet their defense spending has declined almost 20 percent. Twenty years ago, those nations provided 33 percent of the alliance’s defense spending; today, they provide 21 percent. This is why Robert Gates, before resigning as U.S. defense secretary, warned that unless Europe’s disarmament is reversed, future U.S. leaders “may not consider the return on America’s investment in NATO worth the cost.” Born to counter the Soviet army on the plains of Northern Europe, NATO may be expiring in North Africa.

But before abandoning yourself to despondency, recall that George Will was declaring NATO in mortal peril back in 1999. During the dark moments of the Kosovo intervention, he had this to say: "On the eve of the April celebration of NATO's 50th anniversary, the most successful alliance in world history may have died by suicide." Of course Kosovo turned out not to be an alliance-ending disaster but a qualified success. Five years later, the alliance was in the midst of its most ambitious operation ever, in Afghanistan.

There's plenty of reason to be nervous about NATO's future. But don't be nervous just because George Will (or fellow realist Steve Walt) told you to be.

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GEORGEB

4:21 AM ET

August 19, 2011

Kosovo is not a success

If Kosovo is a "success" I would hate to see a failure!!! NATO has created a narcoterrorist state in the middle of Europe - where there was none before - and almost all minorities have been expelled. The Kosovo leadershio - former KLA terrorists - are now slowly being brought to justice.

DMOLONEY

8:43 AM ET

August 19, 2011

Overall kosovo was indeed a

Overall kosovo was indeed a success for the serb military was prevented from committing mass ethnic cleansing against the majority of the kosovar population.

Kosovo crime problem was significant after the war which is expected considering the breakdown of law and order due to the conflict, however the crime rate has took a significant plunge with the improvement of the level of governance.

F1FAN

9:26 AM ET

August 19, 2011

Successes mean nothing

NATO is the new sick man of Europe, and like the Ottoman Empire, it may take centuries to finally succumb. NATO's irrelevance has been on full display starting with Kossovo. Militarily a success, but long term.... not so much. Installing Albanian mafia as the government, extending self determination to Albanians while denying it to Serbians, forcefully redrawing a state's borders, it will all collapse as soon as NATO does and just like with Ottoman Turkey collapsing the Balkans will redraw their borders yet again. The Farce in Libya is equally a failure. Days dragged into weeks into months with the 'democratic rebels' turning on and killing each other, accepting help from avowed terrorists it might turn into a military success but again it has no real chance of proving a long term solution.

The Soviet Union and Warsaw pact imploded when it decided it could redraw it's neighbors borders to favor it's ideology, NATO remained strong because it steered clear of such quagmires.

Mr. Will was correct in 1999 and he is correct now. Without something drastic changing NATO will probably begin to shed members in the next decade to come.