Posted By David Bosco Share

The Times of India reports on a new diplomatic push by the four leading candidates for permanent Security Council membership:

India, Japan, Brazil and Germany chose the Indian Republic Day to launch a fresh offensive in the UN for expansion of the Security Council. The G-4, as they are better known, for the first time, put a joint bid for the UN Security Council during a closed plenary session at the UN General Assembly on Thursday, which is headed by Zahir Tanin, the UN ambassador from Afghanistan.

In a strongly worded statement, the G-4 countries said, "This Council should be expanded in both the permanent and non-permanent categories of membership, taking into consideration the contributions made by countries to the maintenance of international peace and security, as well as the need for increased representation of developing countries in both categories. On numerous occasions, we have reconfirmed our view that Africa should be represented in the permanent membership in an enlarged Council."

The article presents China as the main obstacle to Council reform; I'd say the more serious problem is the inability of these four to convince a critical mass of the broader UN membership that reform would mean more than adding to the ranks of the privileged major-powers. With its emphasis on more non-permanent seats and more Council transparency, the statement suggests that they are committed to crafting a reform package that could entice the small and mid-size states needed to achieve a two-thirds majority in the General Assembly (the threshhold for amending the UN Charter). If they manage that, my guess is that the current P5, even China, would be hard pressed to torpedo the initiative.

EXPLORE:FLASH POINTS
 

GRANT

5:23 PM ET

January 27, 2012

Exactly which African nations

Exactly which African nations are they referring to? Egypt or Nigeria? Not under these circumstances. South Africa? I'm fairly sure that U.S enthusiasm for South Africa ended with the Mandela era and the past few years hasn't done anything to increase it. I suppose you could increase the number of non-permanent seats allocated to Africa but that seems like a small step for Africa.

 

DAVID BOSCO

5:56 PM ET

January 27, 2012

I think South Africa is still

I think South Africa is still the most plausible candidate. As always, the problem is that no region likes to think of itself as being represented by one country on the Council. Other African players will likely bristle at the notion of the S.A. as the continent's permanent representative.

 

SUPERSEIYAN

10:24 PM ET

January 27, 2012

This is one area that doesn't need reform

The permanent members represent diverse enough interests, with Russia and China there acting as nominal checks on "the West".

Expanding the Security Council will defeat it's purpose, which is to be a (relatively) quick acting body. On transparency, increased formal transparency will just push the US & GB to use informal backroom secret meetings. No doubt it happens now, but it could worsen.

This is a reform that could have unintended consequences.

 

GRANT

10:47 PM ET

January 27, 2012

There are two schools of

There are two schools of countering perspective.

From the views of Germany, Japan, India and Brazil the Security Council doesn't reflect the powers of the 21st century, or at least it gives power to some nations that don't deserve it as much. Additionally those four states seeking permanent status want to improve the power of their nations, a fairly obvious bit of self interest.

From the views of close to two hundred nations the makeup of the permanent members (a.k.a the P-5) is mostly the club of elite nations, and they probably include Russia and China on that list. Putting four richer nations* along with the P-5 might not seem that different to them but if they could convince the others that it would also include more representation of the nations and regions not represented then they might agree (note the specific mention of Africa).

*Brazil and India might need a lot of investment and development but compared to much of the world they are rich.

 

INTELEK

2:47 PM ET

January 29, 2012

Security Council Reform

China is not worthy to be on the permanent council since its responsibility and interest are solely cater to China's need. They are not playing by the international rules nor if they ever contribute to global greatness. They are scavengers and should be taken down.

 

INTELEK

2:49 PM ET

January 29, 2012

Security Council Reform

China is not worthy to be on the permanent council since its responsibility and interest are solely cater to China's need. They are not playing by the international rules nor if they ever contribute to global greatness. They are scavengers and should be taken down.

 

MARTY MARTEL

7:51 AM ET

January 28, 2012

Three UNSC Brahmins will stop any reform

Contrary to what Mr. Bosco says, more than two third of UN General Assembly members will support UN General Assembly resolution by BIGJ (Brazil, India, Germany, Japan) to expand UNSC. There are always opponents in a democracy as Mr. Bosco knows.

It is three out of five veto-wielding Brahmins of UNSC (China being the leader of them) that will stop any reform in its tracks because such an expansion will dilute their power to dictate UN agenda.

If even two UNSC Brahmins i.e. Britain and France have a will to support such an expansion, they can do it by forcing other two Brahmins to support UNSC expansion and threatening to prevent any other UNSC business until the two opposing Brahmins i.e. China and US support the UNSC expansion demanded by BIGJ.

 

MARTY MARTEL

7:53 AM ET

January 28, 2012

Three UNSC Brahmins will stop any reform - Correction

Contrary to what Mr. Bosco says, more than two third of UN General Assembly members will support UN General Assembly resolution by BIGJ (Brazil, India, Germany, Japan) to expand UNSC. There are always opponents in a democracy as Mr. Bosco knows.

It is three out of five veto-wielding Brahmins of UNSC (China being the leader of them) that will stop any reform in its tracks because such an expansion will dilute their power to dictate UN agenda.

If even two UNSC Brahmins i.e. Britain and France have a will to support such an expansion, they can do it by forcing other three Brahmins to support UNSC expansion and threatening to prevent any other UNSC business until the three opposing Brahmins i.e. China, Russia and US support the UNSC expansion demanded by BIGJ.

 

AARONJA

9:57 AM ET

January 28, 2012

India should have a seat

A country representing 1,200 million people should certainly have a seat on the Security Council.

Germany is problematic, as that would give the EU nations 3 seats. They should retain the current 2 and perhaps alternate them amongst the four largest European nations -- Germany, France, the UK and Italy.

 

GHODGIN

1:41 PM ET

January 28, 2012

India, Japan, Brazil: perhaps. Germany: probably not.

Although the G-4 have strong claims to permanent seats on the UNSC, the fact of the matter that no P-5 member will willingly share the veto. I see India and Brazil possibly having the best chance of gaining permanent (but non-veto wielding) seats in some expansion of the UNSC (either to 21 with a revision of the number of affirmatives needed or possibly 25), but Japan will be blocked by China for the foreseeable future.

Germany is a special problem: as the most powerful economy in Europe and the fact that it has attempted to show what a nice country it is since WWII, Germany should at least have a shot. However, there is simply no way that the world community will give Europe a 3rd permanent seat. The solution (which won't happen, sadly) would be to give the EU a permanent non-veto seat. This would allow Germany to directly influence without overtly giving the UNSC a seat.

 

GHODGIN

1:46 PM ET

January 28, 2012

Sorry...

Not giving the UNSC a seat, giving Germany a seat.

 

MRGASPER

3:34 PM ET

January 30, 2012

Only Brazil?

China would not be able to stomach sitting with India, either, and you are absolutely correct about Germany and Japan. Brazil is the only clear option that I can see, but what reason do any of the permanent members have to support it in this goal?

 

LTLEE

9:08 AM ET

January 29, 2012

UN can never be any kind of democracy

unless the weight if a nation's or a group of nations' votes reflect population size to a more meaninful way.

 

GRANT

8:47 PM ET

January 29, 2012

Why should it? Legislative

Why should it? Legislative bodies in more than a few nations (including the U.S) aren't entirely dependent on the population of a certain place and it seems pointless to try to take the population of a nation into account for more democracy if the nation in question isn't very democratic.

 

MRGASPER

3:32 PM ET

January 30, 2012

Expansion Impossible

The Times's article is particularly interesting because it is an Indian publication discussing China's opposition to UNSC expansion in any meaningful capacity, referring to China as a "guardian angel for the opposers."

The prospect of China accepting a permanent seat -- or even an expansion of the "non-permanent categories of membership," flatly, does not exist. India is by a very real margin China's primary competition as it seeks hegemony in Southeast Asia and beyond, and the border tension between the two are so palpable you could cut it with a dull knife. Attempts to win a seat for India on the UNSC are guaranteed to bear no fruit beyond a stronger friendship between India and its supporters.

The story is the same when Japan is taken into consideration -- both Russia and China balk at the prospect. And with Germany, the players may change (France and the UK) but the story remains the same, although perhaps more subdued -- with Germany's increase in relative power through the Eurozone crisis, it seems fantastically unlikely that France would let it gain the influence a UNSC seat would provide.

But let's change the path of this conversation a bit. With Russia today seeking to block resolutions regarding Syria, what would the UN and the world really gain from more seats at the Security Council's table besides an even clearer ability to function? No, the United Nations is (as you taught me) designed to be controlled by the UNSC's five permanent members, and presenting an argument acceptable to all of them that they should muddy their processes even more is a challenge that few would take on and even fewer would accomplish.

 

David Bosco reports on the new world order for The Multilateralist.

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